Why Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in Gaza But Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Just days after Donald Trump announced he intended to confer with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary meeting by the both countries' top diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump told the press at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."
- Donald Trump says he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks shelved
- Disappointment in Kyiv as Zelensky leaves Washington empty-handed
The frequently changing summit is just the latest development in Trump's attempts to broker an end to war in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a ceasefire and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in Egypt last week to celebrate that truce deal, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"We have to get the Russian situation done," he declared.
Nonetheless, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing several years.
Less Leverage
Per the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a agreement was the Israeli government's move to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided the president leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president benefited from a history of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, including his choice to move the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a situation that provided him with special sway over the nation's head.
Add in the president's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the region, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has warned to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the global economy and intensify the conflict.
At the same time, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the nation - then to retreat in the face of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the whole area.
The president often boasts about his ability to sit down and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the war any nearer a peaceful end.
Putin may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in direct negotiations - as a means of manipulating him.
In July, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That legislation was afterwards put on hold.
Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the president of Russia phoned the US president who then touted the potential meeting in Budapest.
The following day, the president welcomed Ukraine's leader at the White House, but departed without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.
The US leader maintained that he was not being played by Putin.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I emerged really well," he remarked.
However the Ukrainian leader later commented on the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a little further away for us – for Ukraine – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.
Thus, in a short period, the president has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and privately urging Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – even land Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has finally settled on calling for a ceasefire along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has rejected.
On the campaign trail previously, Trump promised that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since abandoned that pledge, admitting that ending the war is turning out harder than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when neither side desires, or can afford to, cease hostilities.