Foreign Office Cautioned Regarding Military Action to Overthrow Zimbabwe's Leader
Newly disclosed documents show that the Foreign Office cautioned against British military action to overthrow the then Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "viable option".
Government Documents Reveal Considerations on Handling a "Depressingly Healthy" Dictator
Policy papers from the then Prime Minister's government show officials considered options on how best to deal with the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old dictator, who refused to step down as the country fell into violence and economic chaos.
Faced with Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential courses of action.
Isolation Strategy Deemed Not Working
Diplomats concluded that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and building an international consensus for change was not working, having failed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.
Options outlined in the documents were:
- "Attempt to remove Mugabe by military means";
- "Go for tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and shuttering the UK embassy; or
- "Re-open dialogue", the approach advocated by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.
"We know from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that altering a government and/or its harmful policies is almost impossible from the outside."
The diplomatic assessment rejected military action as not a "serious option," adding that "The only nation for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be willing to do so".
Cautionary Notes of Significant Losses and Legal Hurdles
It cautioned that military involvement would cause heavy casualties and have "serious consequences" for UK nationals in Zimbabwe.
"Short of a severe human and political disaster – resulting in massive violence, large-scale refugee flows, and instability in the region – we judge that no African state would agree to any efforts to remove Mugabe by force."
The document continues: "We also believe that any other international ally (including the US) would authorise or participate in military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."
Playing the Longer Game Advocated
The Prime Minister's advisor, Laurie Lee, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "could become a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been discounted, "we probably have to accept that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-open talks with Mugabe.
Blair appeared to agree, writing: "We must devise a way of exposing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then subsequently, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a firm agreement."
The then outgoing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had recommended cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has said and done".
The Zimbabwean leader was ultimately removed in a 2017 coup, aged 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise Thabo Mbeki into joining a military coalition to overthrow Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the former UK premier.
